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Prediction for CME (2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-01-07T18:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/4353/-1 CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-01-09T19:32Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 3.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-01-09T08:00Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Prediction Method Note: (Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays) (Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/) (Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below) -- Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1944 (S09W08, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the largest, most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was responsible for the largest solar event of the period, an X1/2n flare at 07/1832 UTC, which was associated with a Type II radio burst (estimated velocity of 1064 km/s) and an 8,300 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible for a few low level C-class flares as well as multiple radio sweeps and bursts. It exhibited signs of slight decay in its trailer spot group as well as parts of the intermediate spots, but had slight penumberal growth in the leader spot. Region 1946 (N09W12, Dkc/beta-gamma) had slight consolidation in its intermediate and leader spots, but showed separation between the intermediate and trailer spots. Although this region was the second largest and second most magnetically complex region, it remained fairly inactive throughout the period. Region 1947 (N11, L=180), now just beyond the west limb, was the only other flare producer over the last 24 hours. This region was responsible for a M3/Sf flare at 08/0347 UTC that was associated with a Type II radio sweep (est speed 697 km/s), a C7/Sf flare at 07/2233 UTC, and a couple of other low-level C-class flares. With its current location, any associated CME is not expected to be Earth-directed. The only other active region on the visible disk, Region 1948 (N07E46, Hsx/alpha), was stable and unremarkable. Once enough imagery was available, in-depth analysis of the coronal mass ejection associated with the X1/2n flare (mentioned in the previous discussion) was accomplished. The current Enlil model of this CME indicates a possible arrival at Earth early on 09 Jan. Potential impacts of this CME are discussed below. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one through three (08-10 Jan), due to the magnetic complexity and flare potential of Region 1944. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at normal to high levels, reached a peak of 2690 pfu at 07/1550 UTC, then quickly dropped to background levels following redistribution of particles with the arrival of the 04 Jan CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose above the 10 and 100 pfu thresholds (S1-Minor then S2-Moderate) late in the period, following the X1 flare from Region 1944. They reached a maximum value of 951 pfu at 08/0810 UTC, and remain elevated above the 900 pfu level. The 100 MeV proton event which began at 06/0830 UTC briefly returned to background conditions before becoming elevated following the above mentioned X1 flare. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached a peak value of 4.2 pfu at 07/2240 UTC and remain elevated at 1.5 pfu as of this summary. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels during the period (08-10 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at S2 levels for day one (08 Jan). During day two (09 Jan) levels are forecast to decrease to S1-Minor levels, prior to the anticipated arrival of the 07 Jan CME. After the CME arrival, 10 MeV proton flux values are likely to elevate back into the S2-Moderate category with a slight chance of reaching S3-Strong levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated the arrival of the anticipated weak CME from 04 Jan. Solar wind speed started the period at 350 km/s, then indicated a sharp increase to 435 km/s at 07/1428 UTC with arrival of a sudden impulse from the 04 Jan CME. Speeds then began a steady decrease throughout the period, ending at a fairly constant speed near 325 km/s. An increase in density, temperature and wind speed accompanied an enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF total field reached a peak of 8.6 nT while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -7.7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away) orientation for most of the period, with isolated oscillations into negative (towards) territory near the end of the period. .Forecast... Wind speeds are expected to remain near background levels for day one (08 Jan) and the first portion of day two (09 Jan) when the 07 Jan CME is expected to arrive. Wind speeds at or above 700 km/s are forecast upon the transient's arrival along with a density increase. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) into the first part of day two (09 Jan). Minor (G1-minor) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on day two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10 Jan) is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday before returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to subside. -- Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2014 is 7 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2014 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 00-03UT 3 3 7 (G3) 03-06UT 3 2 6 (G2) 06-09UT 1 7 (G3) 5 (G1) 09-12UT 1 7 (G3) 4 12-15UT 2 6 (G2) 4 15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 3 18-21UT 3 6 (G2) 3 21-00UT 3 6 (G2) 3 Rationale: G1-minor to G3-strong storm levels are expected early on day two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10 Jan) is likely to start out at G2-moderate to G3-strong storm levels, decreasing to G1-Minor levels by midday as CME effects begin to subside. ...Lead Time: 42.02 hour(s) Difference: 11.53 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-01-08T01:31Z |
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