CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09W08, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the largest, most
magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was responsible for
the largest solar event of the period, an X1/2n flare at 07/1832 UTC,
which was associated with a Type II radio burst (estimated velocity of
1064 km/s) and an 8,300 sfu Tenflare. This region was also responsible
for a few low level C-class flares as well as multiple radio sweeps and
bursts. It exhibited signs of slight decay in its trailer spot group as
well as parts of the intermediate spots, but had slight penumberal
growth in the leader spot. Region 1946 (N09W12, Dkc/beta-gamma) had
slight consolidation in its intermediate and leader spots, but showed
separation between the intermediate and trailer spots. Although this
region was the second largest and second most magnetically complex
region, it remained fairly inactive throughout the period. Region 1947
(N11, L=180), now just beyond the west limb, was the only other flare
producer over the last 24 hours. This region was responsible for a M3/Sf
flare at 08/0347 UTC that was associated with a Type II radio sweep (est
speed 697 km/s), a C7/Sf flare at 07/2233 UTC, and a couple of other
low-level C-class flares. With its current location, any associated CME
is not expected to be Earth-directed. The only other active region on
the visible disk, Region 1948 (N07E46, Hsx/alpha), was stable and
unremarkable.
Once enough imagery was available, in-depth analysis of the coronal mass
ejection associated with the X1/2n flare (mentioned in the previous
discussion) was accomplished. The current Enlil model of this CME
indicates a possible arrival at Earth early on 09 Jan. Potential impacts
of this CME are discussed below.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares on days one through three (08-10 Jan), due to the magnetic
complexity and flare potential of Region 1944.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at
normal to high levels, reached a peak of 2690 pfu at 07/1550 UTC, then
quickly dropped to background levels following redistribution of
particles with the arrival of the 04 Jan CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose above the 10 and 100 pfu
thresholds (S1-Minor then S2-Moderate) late in the period, following the
X1 flare from Region 1944. They reached a maximum value of 951 pfu at
08/0810 UTC, and remain elevated above the 900 pfu level. The 100 MeV
proton event which began at 06/0830 UTC briefly returned to background
conditions before becoming elevated following the above mentioned X1
flare. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached a peak value of 4.2
pfu at 07/2240 UTC and remain elevated at 1.5 pfu as of this summary.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (08-10 Jan). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at S2
levels for day one (08 Jan). During day two (09 Jan) levels are forecast
to decrease to S1-Minor levels, prior to the anticipated arrival of the
07 Jan CME. After the CME arrival, 10 MeV proton flux values are likely
to elevate back into the S2-Moderate category with a slight chance of
reaching S3-Strong levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
arrival of the anticipated weak CME from 04 Jan. Solar wind speed
started the period at 350 km/s, then indicated a sharp increase to 435
km/s at 07/1428 UTC with arrival of a sudden impulse from the 04 Jan
CME. Speeds then began a steady decrease throughout the period, ending
at a fairly constant speed near 325 km/s. An increase in density,
temperature and wind speed accompanied an enhancement in the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF total field reached a peak
of 8.6 nT while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of
-7.7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away)
orientation for most of the period, with isolated oscillations into
negative (towards) territory near the end of the period.
.Forecast...
Wind speeds are expected to remain near background levels for day one
(08 Jan) and the first portion of day two (09 Jan) when the 07 Jan CME
is expected to arrive. Wind speeds at or above 700 km/s are forecast
upon the transient's arrival along with a density increase.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (08 Jan) into the first part of day two (09 Jan). Minor
(G1-minor) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on day
two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10
Jan) is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong)
storm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday
before returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to
subside.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Jan 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2014 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2014
 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10
00-03UT 3 3 7 (G3)
03-06UT 3 2 6 (G2)
06-09UT 1 7 (G3) 5 (G1)
09-12UT 1 7 (G3) 4 
12-15UT 2 6 (G2) 4 
15-18UT 2 5 (G1) 3 
18-21UT 3 6 (G2) 3 
21-00UT 3 6 (G2) 3 
Rationale: G1-minor to G3-strong storm levels are expected early on day
two (09 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 07 Jan CME. Day three (10
Jan) is likely to start out at G2-moderate to G3-strong storm levels,
decreasing to G1-Minor levels by midday as CME effects begin to subside.
...

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